全仏オープン男子1回戦予想 – マッチベット

全仏オープン男子1回戦予想 – マッチベット

Welcome on in. It is betting weekly game bet match. Number one tennis betting podcast and YouTube show brought to you in association with Bet Rivers, your hometown sports book. It’s the French Open. We’ve already previewed the outright market and now it is time to look at the best bets across round one. Before I introduce you to our senior ATB tour handicapper, Sean Calbert, please hit the subscribe button. Please hit the like. Uh give us some comments. Let know your thoughts. If we’re not covering a match that you want, put it in the comments box. Let us know what you fancy of the first round over in Paris. We are fast approaching 9,000 subscribers. We are about 20 short of that number. And I thought we’d get it before the start of the French token. So, if you haven’t subscribed, please hit the subscribe button. Hit us to our target of 9,000. Then we want 10,000 before Wimbledon. Good morning and a nice early morning to our senior AB tour handicapper. It is Sean Calbert. Good morning, Sean. Good morning. This is bright and early, isn’t it? It is nice. I like I just said in bit when before we start recording I like getting this done like getting it done back to back after you get out. Yeah, you got the free day. I would say enjoy the sunshine but it’s absolutely horrible and it’s not very good weather in Paris either, is it? No, I don’t think it’s not. I don’t think it’s too bad today. I think tomorrow it looks a little bit uh questionable. I think that is Sunday. A bit of rain around. I think tomorrow it’s all right here actually. The rain’s gone. It’s going to be all right for the rest of the day. So yeah, no problem for me as far as weather. I’m off to a uh a soul afternoon. Now you you would you would I’m not talking I’m not referring to fish. Soul music afternoon which I’ve been dragged along. It’s not really my kind of thing. I don’t think I don’t think I don’t think it’ be something you would be one who would do. No. What does that what does that involve? It involves like R&B soul music all afternoon session 2:00 till 9:00. In what sense? in like a restaurant or something or no in like a bar area but it’s like a big thing for all our friends and they’ve invited they actually bought us tickets without me even knowing and I have to go. Not really my kind of thing and you know I’m not really it’s going to be about six hours listening to Alexander O’Neal and um well all that sort of stuff. If only you were there tonight or you were here tonight Sean that would be make it very very diff and one thing Alexander O’Neal record if it is I don’t criticize you and you’re definitely not a fake. So there three Alexander Neil songs all rolled into one there just off the top of my head. That’s just off the top of your head. You had no idea I was gonna mention Alexander O’Neal. I didn’t know until 30 seconds ago. Yeah, it’s impressive. I mean clearly you’re you’re a bit of a fan on the quiet of this stuff. I’m a good I’m good at all music. So I’ve said this before because of music quiz. Anyone’s got a music quiz and need someone to come along to the quiz, I’ll be your man. No 80s7s I’ll be pretty good at but 90s are right. The current stuff Oh no, leave me out. Anyway, this isn’t a music show. This isn’t music this isn’t this isn’t soul night. This isn’t like cool vibes and the radio. Uh, this is the French Open. It could be. This is the French Open preview show for round one matches. Before we go into the French Open, we got some pretty good news and pretty bad news if which way you’re looking at it of the event in Hamburg where we recommended a player, didn’t we? We we recommended Capaboli to win the tournament at 25 to1. But unfortunately, it’s not available to go on our figures, unfortunately, is he? It’s like last year all over again, isn’t it? We had sit pass at like 33 to1 who couldn’t put him up because he was about 14 to1. Um we bet Rivers on that occasion. This time a similar a similar thing although he’s obviously not won the tournament yet. I mean he’s got a tough match in the final against against Rublev Kaboli. Um yeah because of the the fact that the tournament starts on a Sunday rather than a Monday. The show that we did we could only really preview it in terms of in terms of leans, couldn’t we? because whatever happened in the play on Sunday would affect the odds for the next day or that evening or whatever. So, um, in all honesty, you would have you would have probably got Kaboli at the same price if you’d have bet him the next day cuz nothing nothing major happened, I don’t think, on the on the first day from from memory. Uh, so you would have probably got him at that. But, uh, yeah, like last year, we can’t uh we can’t put him on the the profit and loss because it wasn’t an official play. But, uh, I’m sure people will have will have had a little nibble on him at 25 to1. You know, a lot of people bet the leans as well. So yeah, hopefully some people will have will have profited from that and there was a few people who well I know one guy actually put a comment in one of the groups that say kaboli just kabolian exclamation marks and so I can imagine there was a few people were bending him but as I say unfortunately we can’t put him in the figures which is a bit of a shame because if we had put him in the eachway money would have probably turned us into a small profit heading into the the French Open but anyway it is the way it is and I’m sure we’re going to have some more winners along the way together and starting this week over in Paris. Now, we’ve got five first round matches. We do not know the order of play yet. The order of play hasn’t been released by Roland Garos, but what we do know is the action starts at 5:00 a.m. on Sunday. So, this will be going live on Saturday morning. So, you’ve got more or less the whole day to have a look at your bets. Head across to the Bet Rivers website. There will be no better tennis coverage than Bet Rivers on their app, on their website, on the tennis. And obviously, if you do have a bet on the matches with Bet Rivers, you’ll be able to live stream these matches as well. You’ll also won’t get a better coverage of the French Open than you have here on the ben weekly studios across the men’s and the women’s tour as well. Okay, let’s move on to our first match. Ben Shelton up against Lorenzo Seneago. Ben Shelton obviously the big serving American. Uh not really a clay, not renowned for his claycourt prowess. He’s lost his last two clayc court matches coming into it against Menics and Muna. He’s up against Seneago who is more the established clay quarter but in a bit of bad form. He’s only won once in his five matches on clay this year as the Italian and his form coming into it in the hardcore as well. The end of Miami and Indian Wells Dubai wasn’t that great after he made the quarterfinal in Marseilles. Ben Shelon is the favorite with Bet Rivers. He’s currently available at – 167. Lorenzo Sango is plus 133. The spread here is 2 and a half and the total very high for a clay match 40 and a half. They have met three times previously and all of them have gone overs. Uh if you look at the first match in Cincinnati in 2022, Shelton won 763675. There was a long fourth setter in the uh French Open. Maybe not gone over that one, 37 games that one. And then in 2025 this year, they met in the Australian Open where again Shelton came through three sets to one in the French Open. Tobago come through three sets to one. So 2-1 to the American. The common theme is games. If you’re looking at the Bet Rivers prices though, they have taken that into account going 40 and a half, which is extremely high for a first round on play. Yeah, with these two, it’s not it’s not a surprise that it’s 40 and a half uh totals. That’s that’s not the way I’m looking at this. I just think there’s there’s value on Lorenzo Sago here in these conditions particularly. Um, as you said, they played here a couple of years ago. Uh, Seneago won that pretty comfortably in the end, right? He dropped a set, but service points won and returns one. So it was 108 to 92 in favor of Senega. So a convincing win. He won 58% of his second serve points that day against 35% for Shelton. So whichever way you look at that match, it was a very comfortable win for Seneago. And and the interesting thing really there is that he was a 1.43 favorite priced up for that match around about minus 235 Lorenzo Seneago. Now he’s plus 133. You’ve got to wonder what’s what’s changed over the over the last two years on this surface. Um, particularly, all right, if it was a hardcore match, it’ be slightly different, but if you look at the head-to-head on all surfaces now, two of these matches were played in pretty quick conditions. Uh, one was the Australian Open, the other one, I think, was was it Cincinnati? Yeah, Cincinnati, where it’s it’s very, very quick. There’s only a slight favoritism for Shelton, 100.5 to 99.5 in the service points, one return points, one total of on all surfaces. Um, Seneago wins 56% on second serve against 50% for Shelton on all surfaces. So, if you if you’re taking hard into account, which you would favor Shelton the way he serves, there still isn’t that much in it. But on Clay, I think it’s a very different very different proposition and slow Clay in particular. You know, Shelton did do well in in Munich um made the final there, but you know, there’s there’s altitude there. There’s like 500 odd meters of altitude in Munich. There’s none of that here obviously uh at Roland Geros. The thing I like about Seneago, he’s not only Seneago, there’s a couple of guys that I’m going to mention today. Um they play above themselves in Grand Slams and and Seneago is a a classic one of those guys. He’s very hard to predict on the ATP tour. Has a lot of hot hot and cold streaks in his results. I remember last year he won he was in awful form and he won Winston Salem I think without dropping a set and then he went on a long losing run. Similarly this year he you know he made the quarterfinals the Australian Open lost lost to Shelton ironically um in a fourth set tiebreak. Since doing that he’s gone three and eight win loss. This is typical Lorenzo Senega but if you look at majors which is you know what I’m trying to do here is trying to find players that play above themselves in majors. This is definitely one of these guys. Um Seneago in majors 52% win rate in the main draw of majors. If you look at tour level matches only, his win rate is 46%. So he’s a much better performer on the big stage in the big tournaments than the the run-of-the-mill tour event. If you also look at the French Open record, he’s got a very good record here. Seneago 60% win rate, service points, one and return points, won total of 101. He’s played some good matches here. Luenzo Seneago. Um Shelton, the jury is very much out on him. He’s played four matches, won two, lost two service points, one return points, one total of 96. and he’s only won 42% of second serve points. So that on slow clay when he when he’s playing neutral rallies when you take that massive serve out of the equation he’s struggled at sea level on clay slow clay on that second ball and as I said so dealt with him pretty comfortably. I know it was two years ago but Seneago’s still got the quality when he when he feels like it and generally he feels like it in in majors rather than some of the tour events particularly robe. I mean, he was he’s he’s never a player I like Senega when he’s odds on at home or under pressure or expected to win. That’s not a good situation. I’ve said before for Seneago, he he doesn’t perform in those types of scenarios um generally. So, I think all told plus 133. I think it’s it’s pretty good value to be fair. Yeah. Sane on the money line plus 133. He had a deep run, didn’t he, in the Australian Open a couple of years ago. Did he get to quarterfinals or semi this year? Yeah. Lost to Shelton this year. Yeah. Yeah. Uh brilliant, brilliant run. a player that raises his game as Sean said there at the majors and at plus 133 he’s probably the more well he is the more established player on clay and a slow clay the weather conditions are going to be pretty making it pretty slow so especially week number one you may want to get with the more traditional clay quarters here and Lorenzo so plus 133 is our first official play of the French Open 2025 matches let’s move on to our second match where we have a favorite here and a seeded player that not Everybody will look is looking to fade. Tommy Taylor Fritz the four number four seed is up against Daniel Altmire and Daniel Meer is a very very accomplished clay court player. Fritz is – 375. Almire is plus 270. The spread here is 5 1/2 total 37 a half. They’ve never met before. They were due to meet in Paris but Fritz had to pull out what was a walkover form in that match. Uh if you look at their records coming into it, Fritz has got the quarterfinals of Geneva, but that only tells a poor part of the story. He was very very poor against um Halis, very lucky to get through that one. Very average against Herash. Lost against Zeron in Rome and he also got beat by Ruds where in altitude in Madrid where you would expect him to do quite well. Uh his clay court form hasn’t been that great. He’s got injury concerns. Three wins and three losses up against me who um got beat in round one of Hamburg but prior to that has done okay. He’s got a win over Kaboli and a Trurin challenger. He’s done all right. He’s uh he’s a proven playcourt player and this is going to be a very very tough opening first round for the number one American. Uh Sean, I’m looking at this match here and there’s a part of me one of the bet on the money line, but there’s certainly a part of me being drawn to the uh to the five and a half spread. There’s 38 different markets on the Bet Rivers website. I’m sure you will be looking at some other angles to get with the the German here, I think. Yeah, you’re right. The plus five and a half was what I was looking at earlier, but the odds have moved actually. Fritz has eased in the market. He was I think he was 1.2 initially. I think he’s he’s a bit bigger than that now. Um that plus five and a half was about even money or just below even money 1.98 something like that. So there has been nibbles for Altmire and I can certainly see why. He’s another one like Seneago who plays his best tennis not not at all grand slams because surfaces don’t suit him like grass hard courts not not really but clay very much so this is a guy that plays his best tennis at Roland Garos you know he’s beaten Yanick S here he’s beaten Beritini he’s beaten Jere’s beaten Struff he beat Greek sport here years ago but still you know those are very very good names over the best of five sets on clay um in a major the only losses he’s actually had in the main draw here were against Sitzipas, Dimmitro, Pablo Coreno, Booster and Xiao Muna. There’s the only people that have beat him at um at this tournament and the the guys that he has beaten Cinno, a lot of people will remember him beating Su a couple of years ago. Very long match. Um so his his overall record at Roland Gar Meer 67% win rate, service points, one and return points, won a total of 101. And bear in mind that all his opponents, every single player he’s played in the main draw here was in the top 100 at the time of the match. And if you look at the average rank, if you work it out mathematically, the average rank of of a player he’s played here is number 39 in the world, Altmire. So, and he’s got 101 total from those matches. So, this is a guy that is way way above his his normal level. His level at the minute on the main tour is it’s about 95 uh on Clay and you know and that’s his that’s his best surface. He’s not you know he’s struggled a little bit but this tournament for whatever reason maybe he just loves the big stage. I don’t know whatever it is conditions obviously suit him you know fabulous record. Fritz he’s got an okay record. It’s not it’s not terrible. It’s not great. It’s it’s 56% win rate. Service points one and return points one out of 102. That’s just one point better than than Altmire. It’s not it’s not what you you would say is befitting of a of a number five the top five in the world player uh by any means. So the slow conditions you wouldn’t have thought will favor Taylor Fritz at all. You would think they would favor Almire. The slower the better for him. Um and as you said Taylor Fritz is in poor form coming into this. hasn’t been able to play as best this year, mainly due to injuries. It particularly the abdominal injury which he had earlier on in the year and then he he kind of came back and then it it sort of reoccurred. I’m not sure if he’s fully fit at the minute. We what we do know is he’s played six matches on Clay this season. He’s got service points, one return points, one of 99.6 um which is way down. I think I mentioned last week when we we talked about the Halis match, I think his average is 104. Um just going back to Halis actually he he was fortunate Fritz Hal should have broken him in in the first set ended up wasting about three or four break points then getting broken himself second set was a tie break um and then as you say lost to to Hubert Herkash who is is playing very well by the way Herkash um so excuse me a bit early for the old voice I think this uh yeah obviously whichever way you want to play it I’m going to go for the slightly braver option as I as I tend to do a lot of the time. Altmire plus one and a half set. So, he’s got to win a couple of sets here. Or me um at 2.38 plus 138 with Bet Rivers, but a lot of people will probably go for the more safer option option, which is plus 5 and a half games around about minus 127 1.79 with Bet Rivers. Would you be tempted on the money line? I’d be quite tempted on the money line. I would I wouldn’t I wouldn’t rule that out um at all. You know, as I said, he’s had some very very good wins here. I wouldn’t I wouldn’t put anybody off and have a little bit of pizza money on the um on the money line either. Yeah, I certainly wouldn’t rule that out. Yeah. So, our second match, our second potential shop there and Taylor Fritz is definitely a vulnerable seed in this tournament. I mean, there’s no doubt about it. Everybody who’s uh every player who’s in seeded in this quarter will think they got an opportunity to knock out a big seed here. And Daniel has done it before. Will he do it again? Remember, 5:00 a.m. Eastern time. These match start on Sunday. We don’t know the order of play yet. Bet Rivers will have 36 to 38 different markets on this match and I’m sure they’ll have a great offering about the American number one. But not good news for American betterers if you’re watching this show. Uh the next match is Alex Dino up against Lazlo. Alex Deor is the Aussie who has uh had some good form on Clay this year but I suppose the conditions have suited him compared to what he’s going to be faced with in in the in Roland Goss. He’s up against a real clay court slugger in Lazlo Jerry. Dimino is 345. Jerry is plus 270. Fred is a massive 6 and a half here but Jerry is a very heavy favorite there. Minus 150 total 36 and a half which I thought looked quite low as well on the totals there. They have met three times before and all three wins have come for Alex Deino but all of them have been on indoor hard or a glass grass court where you would expect Alex Deino to win and he’s won not comfortably. He’s lost a set in two of those as well. Llo Jerry is a proven clay quarter. As I said this is the first time they’ve met on clay. Dimino has had a good season, but this is a tough test for him in round one as well. It is a very tough test or I think it will be if if Lazlo Jere is fit. And that’s a question you’ve got to ask about a lot of these guys in the round one of the majors because there’s a lot of money at stake here. Excuse me. There’s a lot of money at stake. Um sometimes players do turn up when they’re less than fully fit. I know they changed the rules a couple of years ago whereby you couldn’t, you know, play a set and retire and and keep your prize money. That’s not really had the effect that we want. You know what that’s had is the effect that players carry on playing very half-heartedly and end up losing 62 61 61 or something like that which which is no good for anybody. Um so there’s that’s anyway that’s an entirely other debate. Um but there’s a lot of money at stake here. So so you have to kind of hope that the player is turning up fit and ready for action. We’re not 100% sure about that with Llo Jere. Um, I’m hoping that he is cuz if he is, I think this will be a really entertaining match. A really tough clay court grind which which Jere loves in slow conditions. You know, he’s been in great form this season on the Clay Llo Jere. Um, the issue is the right arm injury that he had in Rome. He he served for the first set, I think. Pretty sure he served for the first set against Alcarez um in the third round there. Ended up he he carried on playing um Jerry, but he clearly wasn’t competitive in in the second set. He had a right arm injury. That was a few weeks ago. He pulled out of Hamburg last week. Obviously wasn’t ready. Didn’t want to risk it. I’m hoping that that couple of weeks is enough for him to be fit because 2025 on Clay at main level. He’s got a 75% win rate and a service points one and return points total of 106. I mean, Deino is better. Not as good win rate, 69%, but his total is 108, which is excellent, but it’s only two points in it. two very very impressive set sets of stats and you know we know Jerry is is a quality uh a quality player on Clay. He’s very tough to beat. What is interesting is is Deor on Clay. He tends to beat who he should be but he he’s certainly got a limit. If you look at his last 10 matches on Clay against the current top 10, he’s played eight. Um last 10 matches. How can that be right? Jere is the last 10. Deor he’s obviously only played eight. He’s lost all of them anyway. to minor zero and eight win loss and he’s got service points one and return points one total of 94. Jerry’s won three of his 10 and he’s got the same total of 94. So statistically it doesn’t look like there’s a great deal in it. It it doesn’t feel to me like on Clay there’ll be a massive amount in this unless Jerry’s not fit. As you said, Deino’s won all three of their meetings but in very suitable very very suitable conditions for for Deino on indoor hard and grass. But Jerry took a set in both of the grass court meetings and it was only 104 to 96 in Deor’s favor um in the service points one and return points one those grass matches. Yeah, it’s obviously a decent lead but it’s not as overwhelming as you would expect with Deor on grass against Jerry just shows you that he is he’s a a tough guy to to play on on most surfaces if he’s fit. Um and conditions here will suit him. He’s been lucky actually, Jerry, with the the kind of players that he’s faced here at the French Open. Four of his last five losses at this tournament have come against top 10 opponents. This this could well be another one uh against the world number nine. So, he’s not had great draws here. Last year, he came here injured. Um so, the only loss he’s had here that wasn’t against a top 10 opponent was last year, which I think he lost to Walt Meer. Um but he he hadn’t played since retiring in Monte Carlo. That was an example of a player that probably wouldn’t have played had it not been for the massive amount of, you know, prize money that that they do get for for first round. So, you got to weigh that up with a lot of people. Um, I’m hoping Jerry’s fit. If he is, the overs is, you know, like you said, the overs is is the way to go, I think, here. Um, I’ve taken over 37 and a half at plus 102 bet Rivers, but you can move that toggle to wherever you want it, whichever way you want to play this, but I think it’ll be a competitive match if Jerry’s fit. Yeah, go ahead because the bets app you got that advantage to move that line that toggle up to whichever line you want if you want to be more daring up to 38 and a half but all about the Jerry’s fitness here but Alex de is I think the market is just thinks he’s a clay court player on his form this year but this is a very very different surface to what we’ve seen in Madrid and very Monte Carlo he did quite well um is that an official play Sean or just first three official plays it’s first three official we are taking a a little bit of a chance we’re getting we’re getting heavily involved in the first round lovely to see. Now, the next match is actually one of the matches. Well, I’ve actually had a bet on this match already. I only have one bet on the men’s and one bet on the women’s and I’ve actually had a bet on this match. I’ve had Xiaomi Farrier to beat Jensen Brooksby already. Hopefully, you’re going to go the same way. Uh Farrier is plus 180. Brooksby is minus 148. The spread here is 2 1/2 and 38 12 is the total games. Brooksby has played in the U the French Open twice before in the first round. Never won a set. Got beat in first round straight away. He’s had a good clay court year, eight wins from three, but really not nowhere near at this level. One of them was in um Houston in we won the tournament in Houston, but that is a very very different but that’s that’s a completely different tennis clay service to what they’re playing here in Roland Gar. Xiaomi Farrier is a Portuguese player. Uh he’s been around uh for a few years now, but he’s an out and out clay court 21, but he’s been around in the circuit for a couple of years. He’s he’s a good player. He’s a clay court through and through. Uh he did however have to pull out of his um qualification match uh in Rome against uh and he lost the first set six love and he had to pull out of an injury. So that was a be a little bit of a worry for me but I thought at the prices which were a little bit bigger than this I had to bet far here to win this match. Brooks me for me is a fade on this Roland Garos Clay. What do you think? Have I done the right thing? I just thought I’d pause for dramatic effect so that you Yeah, you might think I’ve bet Brooksby but you know I haven’t bet Brooksby cuz No, I wouldn’t. would I minus 148. Um you know Jean Farrier again the the first line I’ve put is odds have moved on this one. Is this you with it might have been me and a few runners going around betting shops in South London getting his bets at the I took plus 125. Yeah, he was about plus plus 130ish roughly around about there at the height of of when I looked at this earlier on and now I’ve looked at it this morning. He’s he’s obviously a bit less bit shorter. Um but yeah, it’s it’s it’s all about injury really this one. It’s it’s is he fit Barrier? He’s had a lot of injury problems in the recent recent times. Uh first he had a foot injury, you know, he made the quarterfinals in uh Rio and then Santiago back to back on the on the golden swing. Uh showing shows what he can do. You know, he’s a very very good player, up and cominging player on on Clay. um you know if he’s fit but I think the bottom line is if he’s fit he should be beating Brooksby in these conditions. Excuse me. This is this is early for my voice. It’s not it’s not functioning that well unfortunately. Dear oh dear. Um if we look at what he’s done 2025 main level on Clay Farrier service points one return points one out of 103. Um which is excellent. Brooksby as I said was probably the luckiest champion off the top of my head I can remember for quite a long time when he won Houston. He should have lost in qualies. I think he was a match points down in in quality. He was certainly well behind in one of his matches in qualies there. Um and then he should have been I’m sure people will remember he should have lost to Tablo who had about 50 chances to win that match and he was about 1 to 33 1 to 50 in play. Somehow managed to lose it. Tabau Tommy Paul then should have beaten him again. Somehow managed to throw it away. Um so I’m not entirely sure how he won Houston. Certainly had a lot of luck on his side, but it’s it’s as you said very very different conditions to this. It’s it’s American red clay. It’s it’s totally different. And he’s lost three of his four matches on clay since then Brooksby which kind of highlights how lucky he was really to win to win Houston. the two matches that he’s played at Roland Gar as you say he lost both of them. Service points one and return points one turtle 79 which is dreadful. I know it was a little while ago and you would expect that he would improve but you know looking at his recent results lost to Patrick Maloney uh in the Savannah Challenger. You know Maloney is 364 in the world. Blanco beat him in also in this another Savannah challenger. You know he’s 276 in the world. Nor’s just knocked him off pretty easy in in Geneva as well. So if Farri is fit, I think we do we take a chance on this. I think it’s about fitness again. This this is another one of those things where is Faria coming here for the round one money? That’s that’s the question and the answer did that. Well, that’s the problem. I’m sorry to interrupt them. I just going back to the I just you know I’m not the only person betting far. I mean, I saw the line move a little bit and I thought this I I I originally I pricric up most of these matches and I made this a slight favorite farrier actually. So, I thought he would be quite a small favorite here, but obviously the fitness is the concern and that’s why he’s plus one he opened up plus 130. But the fact that people are betting it at plus 130 is always an encouraging sign for a fit for for players coming from injury. The fact that he’s not going in the other direction actually gives me some confidence. So, that’s why I bet him at plus 125. I’ve just uh had a few quid on him at plus 125. I thought it was a big price. Yeah, I mean you’re right. This is one of them. If you put it in as a lean and you don’t bet it, he’ll probably knock this off in straight sets. So, so he’s undoubtedly the better player on Clay. I don’t think there’s any too many people that would would argue with that. Um, so you weigh up, you know, the risk and reward. Is is the riskreward right plus 18? I think it probably is. Yeah, because I I agree. I think he should be favorite for this. I think he would certainly be favorite for this if he if he was fit. Um, so yeah, let’s let’s take a chance. You don’t get too much value at the French Open too often, so I think you got to take it while it’s there. Yeah. Have I to Was this going to be an official play? Have I actually talked you into this? I was kind of undecided because the odds had moved a little bit, but yeah, I think it’s still I think it’s still a little bit of value. Yeah, even even at plus 118. We were taking a chance. You could also bet him on the handicap or something like that. Um, and if he does retire, cuz you know, if he retires after the first set and you’re on the handicap, but it’ll be it’ll be void. So, there are ways that you could you could do it. You could bet him on the set, handicap minus one and a half set, something like that. And then obviously that’ll be void if the match isn’t complete. So, you know, you’ve got options there. Yeah, good options. I’ve taken the chance on Farri. Let’s hopefully he can get it done. And I’ve talked Sha into an official play. So, uh, you know what’s going to happen now, do you? Going to go wrong. Anyway, let’s move on to our final match which is Nishiokaya up against Poppin. Nishioaya is a big underdog in this match. He is plus 460. Popper in is – 625. The Aussie spread is 6 and a half. Total here is 35 and a half. Again, the total looks cheap for me and the spread looks very very good for the underdog. Perin uh I think he’s got some injury concerns, isn’t he? Coming this game. He doesn’t look fit to me. He doesn’t look that great. uh very very poor against Nori in the semi in the quarterfinals in Geneva yesterday or the day before and he comes in here trading the head-to-head 1 nil. Nishioa did win their only previous meeting which was in Australia beating the Aussie in his own backyard in Adelaide in a long match 766 762 tie break first set here two tie breaks in that match. Um Nishoka hasn’t won a match on Clay yet this year but he’s only played one. He got beat in the first round by Leovic in Rome and Pogarin to me just looks nowhere near the player that won the the thousand last year and shocked Novak Jovovic at the US Open. Um big price Nishio but it can he win it? That’s the big question. I don’t think he can win it but he can definitely cause problems for him. Yeah, it’s it’s it’s about fitness. It’s it’s the same thing again with with Nishio that we’ve talked about with Jere and Faria. Um, is he here for the round one money? Possibly because, you know, since since he met me in in Delray Beach um and he beat he beat Vukich, got a nice winner for us and I got a terrible selfie with him. Um, he he’s not I don’t think he’s barely played since that day actually. I think he’s played a couple of matches because he he did have a shoulder injury. Uh, played a lot of tennis in Davis Cup. He’s not he’s a player that isn’t very physic, you know, his stamina is is highly questionable. his physical endurance is very questionable. He plays a lot of matches in a short space of time. Generally, he gets injured. Um, so he has had that shoulder issue. Uh, well, we’re going back to Delray Beach in in sort of February. He played in Rome. I was there again. I don’t know whether he thinks I’m stalking him, but I was there in Rome on Pier Tranguli watching his a little bit of his match against against Dan Liv. He he should have won the first set actually. He was I think he was about 53 up or something like that in the first set. um Nishio and then you know he he struggled a little bit. It’s the left shoulder it’s it’s it’s a problem for him. Um but if he’s fit this is an opponent in Poppyin that has a awful record role on Garas and he has a bad record against left-handers and both of those obviously feature here. Um Nishika has got a decent record on Clay. People that say he can’t play on Clay, it’s not that’s not really the case. He’s got a 43% win rate at this tournament. He’s won six and lost eight. Now that’s not that’s not bad for a guy who can’t play on clay. Service points won over 10 points at 97. Not not fabulous, but not terrible. You know, it’s not 79 like you know Jensen Brooksby. It’s it’s it’s decent. He’s had some good performances here. Pyin most certainly hasn’t. 14% win rate. He’s only won one of his seven matches here. Poppyin service points one and return points one. Turtle 93. So dreadful against left-handers at main level. He’s always struggled. Um, well, I say always, other than last season when he when he he was winning, you know, that was his that was his year, wasn’t it? Last year he, you know, beat Jovovic at the US Open, won I think it was Montreal um, in the Masters 1000, but he he beat a couple of lefties there, but generally throughout his whole career, he’s struggled. He’s only won 11 of 30 matches at main level against left-handers. Lost four of the last five. Um, and he’s played, as I said, he’s played 30 matches against lefties at main level. And he’s only won five of them in straight sets. Uh, and his service points, one return points, one total is 98. So, definite issue against lefties. He lost again, as you said, in Geneva to a left-hander in Nori when he was ahead. He was he was playing pretty well and he was up in that match against Nori in the first set. And then Nori managed to just do what Nory does, which is just it was late in the day. It was like 9:10 p.m. local time, something like that. And Nori managed to kind of grind him down and and Pop and kind of lost interest a bit in the second set, which isn’t that much of a surprise considering it was ahead of ahead of a major. Um, so it’s another one. It’s going to have to be a lean because I’m not I’m not sure about Nishio’s fitness. Um, but over 35 and a half games at evens with Bet Rivers is is one way to go. again, you’ll get the retirement um void if if if it’s, you know, if he does retire and those games haven’t been met. Uh but there’s there’s plenty of ways you can play this. Maybe first set Nishio, there’s there’s a lot of options. I just think Poppy in minus 625 given his struggles against lefties, given his lack of real form recently and his awful record at the French Open, he’s not one that I would put in in too many accumulators at – 625. No, certainly not. Uh, so I don’t know if it’s a good thing or a bad thing, but we agree on pretty much every single bet. I’ve called the bets. I don’t I don’t know the bets. I’ve called the bets you’re having before we we even discussed. So even I’ve got a couple chuck in just by the way. Go on then. What have we got? What have we got? But the reason these are are sort of not mentioned is because obviously qualifying’s only just finished and even now as I’m speaking the odds aren’t fully formed on the markets that involve the qualifiers that have come through. The obvious one I think of all of them is Marian Chilich at 2.6 six plus 160 against Kaboli. Um you know Kaboli’s still got to play the final in Hamburg. He’s played a lot of tennis. Last night’s match was yes yesterday afternoon. Uh yesterday afternoon yeah against Etche which I’m sure a lot of people watch. I certainly did. 2 hours 47 minutes I think it was. Um another three setter in the first round. You know he’s played an awful lot of tennis. He’s got I’m not sure when these matches take place. Um, but if he’s playing Sunday, I I doubt he will be, but it it’s still a tough turnaround. And he he has got people will have seen he’s got a bandage on his upper right, I think his upper right thigh. Certainly one of his upper right leg, one of his upper legs, upper thigh. Um, so Chilich, you know, obvious chance there. I haven’t looked into it too deeply, but plus plus 160 that that appeals. Similarly, Ruble has got to play the final in Hamburg. He’s playing uh Lloyd Harris who beat Chilich actually to to qualify. And Lloyd Harris is a player that all right, he’s not a clay quarter. You know, a quick hardcore is is perfect for him. Um but he’s finally back from injuries. He’s had he’s had an absolute nightmare with injuries Lloyd Harris over the last sort of probably three or four years really. He said the other day and after his one of his wins in qualies, he said he’s he’s he said he’s not Lloyd Harris 2.0, he’s Lloyd Lloyd Harris 3.0 now because he’s had he’s had that many comebacks. This is his third big comeback. He says he’s feeling better than he has for a long long time. I can’t imagine he’ll beat Rublev um on Clay, but it’s a tough turnaround for Rublev as well. You know, he still hasn’t played that Hamburg final. So Harris maybe take a huge price on him to win set one. I can’t see him winning the match, but Rublev has often struggled in in the early stages of of majors and Harris has got the power to make it annoying for him probably early on as well. And what else you got? Anything else? Just them two. Yeah, I just thought I’d throw them in at the end there so that people consider that as well. Two extra bets there. Betros will have the odds for those during the day here on Saturday. The action starts tomorrow, as I said, 5 a.m. on Sunday, the second major of 2025. Uh we got loads of coverage here covered for you on Game Bet match and betting weekly WTA. The best place for tennis betting without a shadow of doubt. As I said at the top of the show, please hit the subscribe button. We’re close to 9,000 subscribers. I want to do that. get that target before a ball is hit uh in Paris and obviously if we can get 10,000 before Wimble then that is the target all year and we’re going to be very close to doing it and you need your help to do that. It’s the final day of the Premier League season as well tomorrow not only the start of the the French Open and also the final day of the seasons across Europe in the soccer world. A betting weekly Premier League is out live now with some big bets, myself, Jack Wright, and Dan Robuk. And also Dan Rob is joined by Steve Wis and James Eastston on betting weekly uh extra time looking at the matches across Europe as well. And tomorrow at 10:30 Eastern time, uh 3:30 p.m. here in the UK, we have another one of our bets. If you join us for the Europa League Betcast, you would have seen the fun. We would have cashed some tickets together. We watched the matches together. It was a boring match, but we hopefully made it a bit more entertaining than watching the football. And this weekend, it’s the final day of the Premier League. 10 matches all kicking off at the same time. Goals galore, I promise you, in running play at its best. And myself, uh, Steve Wis and Jack Wright will be giving you all the best in play live on the YouTube channel at 10:30 a.m. Eastern time tomorrow on Sunday. Finally, follow us on all our socials at Because We Win. I’ll be in Paris uh on Monday. I’m going to fly and visit in and out back on Wednesday and then at the weekend I’m heading to the Champions League final. So, you’ll see me over in Munich as well. Okay, that’s it for the week. Uh we’ll be back on Tuesday. Uh looking at the second round matches over in Paris, myself and Sean. Good luck with your bet. Sean, before we go, just give us a quick recap what we got. Official plays. Yeah, Lorenzo Seneago plus 133 with Bet Rivers to beat Ben Shelton. I’m taking Daniel Ortier plus one and a half sets at plus 138 against Taylor Fritz and I’m going to take a chance on the overs hoping for a fit. Llo Jere over 37 and a half games plus 102 Bet Rivers Jere against Alex Deorn. Finally, you talked me into it. Um Jame Farrier against Brooksby uh plus 118 uh with Bet Rivers on the money line. Come on, Farrier. You’re fit. You can do this. Uh there’s some bets for you to go for. Pressure’s on me. Pressur’s on me. Uh I can feel I’m going to let the side down again. Anyway, that’s it for the day. Hope you’ve enjoyed the show. Remember, there’s an outright show as well. Tournament winner show, women’s tournament winners show as well and women’s first round matches to come as well. Every bet you got covered here on the betting studio. If tennis is your betting, you like your tennis betting, this is the place for you. Take care. Have enjoy your rest of your weekend. It’s a bank holiday weekend in the UK, bank holiday weekend in America as well. Enjoy your bank holiday weekend and we’ll be back again on Tuesday.

The long-grueling test of 3 of 5 sets on clay begins. The top players typically rise to the top in longer sets, but value can still be found. Nigel Seeley & Sean Calvert look for the best bets in the first round in today’s Betting Weekly: Game, Bet, Match podcast.

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Paris Conditions – 0:00
Lorenzo Sonego vs Ben Shelton – 05:07
Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz – 10:52
Alex De Minaur vs Laslo Djere – 16:46
Jenson Brooksby vs Jaime Faria – 22:08
Alexei Popyrin vs Yoshihito Nishioka – 28:24
Marin Cilic v Flavio Cobolli – 33:32
Andrey Rublev v Lloyd Harris – 34:25

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